Weekly Macro View

January 03, 2022

Chart Highlights

This weeks chart highlights are Focused on market views of multiple time frames and then the current price and breadth setup of the Power Universe.  We start with the TP Monthly showing strong trends in RSI bull ranges. $SPY $QQQ extending and rejecting the November warning candles while $IWM avets a breakdown and moves back into mid range.

The weekly charts still looks like decent trends beginning to move back higher after a quick rest, at least for the $SPY $QQQ. The RSIs there look like mushy trends we tend to see most on the daily and intraday charts, but nothing says it can’t happen on larger time frames as we see here.  $IWM looks more vulnerable and could just be the flag before the breakdown of the range, but until it does, the chart gives a nice level to work against.

Daily ran to start the week and gave back the rest of the week. $QQQ almost gave it all back, but held slightly green for the week. $SPY $IWM fared better. $IWM only one still in the RSI bear range, so it’s still a large to small market right now with larger performing better in most spaces.

The 65min level is as far as we usually discuss here.  This chart shows all three still leaning to the RSI bull range with test either here or coming soon.  $QQQ is hard testing the RSI 40 level now, small overthrows are acceptable as long as they revert quickly. $SPY $IWM have a little more room to give on the intraday level.  This level will show the weakness 1st and tells us we are coming to a short term test of the current rest or reversal question.

So from a broad market view, we are at a very short term crossroad.  Here is where we  turn to our Equal Weight Power Universe to look at how the broad performance and participation are looking as we come to decision time.  Our Index is right up against the previous breakout level that then failed.That level (blue line in chart) held as top of the range for a while and again looks to be an important level. With the current flagging look, a break higher bodes well and should usher in a test of the previous highs and potentially the next broad market move higher. On the other side a downside break hints at another test of the range lows, which opens that up to the potential failure again and puts the markets on shakier ground. If we can get the break higher, the next thing we look for is the RSI bull range shift with RSI moving over the 60 level.

Universe Breadth shows us the continue slow improvement from short to longer term Measures. we discuss in the video where things are improving well and need to see more progress with some highlights on the chart below.

It is definitely worth noting how the percentage making new highs and lows on all 3 time frames we measure have responded. So far the current flag looks more like a breather than a reversal from a breadth perspective.

On top of the ETF Sector Rankings that are found on the Macro Page, We also consider our own equal weighted Sectors from the Universe Page in all sector decisions are we will discuss in more dept in the Sector  review video that will be posted a bit later.

In the video we cover an overview of the broad market to see where we stand and how things are shaping up for the week to come. As always, you can view and interact with this data throughout the website. This week we showed a few views from Tradingview,com, but most were straight from our own engine. I cut the video off abruptly, so I want to wish everyone a Happy New year and look forward to providing more insight through 2022 and beyond.

Good Luck to everyone in the new year; as always, I hope this helps!